The Belarusian Defence Minister has stated that there is a high probability of war between Russia and Belarus and the West
Belarusian Defence Minister Viktor Khrenin has stated that the likelihood of a military conflict involving the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus, both members of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, is “extremely high”. He made this remark during a meeting of the CSTO Council of Defence Ministers in Moscow.
According to Khrenin, Minsk and Moscow view the increase in NATO’s military presence near their borders as preparation for a possible clash. He stated that around 21,000 Alliance troops are stationed in Poland and the Baltic states, and that attempts are ongoing to increase the US military contingent in the region.
The head of the Belarusian defence ministry also claims that NATO regularly practises the redeployment of troops to its eastern flank alongside offensive operations against Russia and Belarus. In his view, the military spending of NATO member states, which he says has exceeded $1.6 trillion a year, is further evidence of preparations for a possible armed conflict.
“Western political elites and their associated defence corporations view war as the key to internal consolidation and stable profits,” Khrenin stated.
He also noted that the policy of preparing for a possible armed conflict with Russia, in his view, is enshrined in the strategic documents of the US, the UK, Germany, France and a number of other European states.
In late spring, senior officials from European countries told The Wall Street Journal that Russia could attack NATO within the next 12 months. The article also notes that on 25 May, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law allowing the use of the army to ‘protect’ compatriots abroad.
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs accused Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia of pursuing a “punitive policy of repression and intimidation” against Russians and announced its intention to appeal to the International Court of Justice. Meanwhile, the Russian Federal Security Service accused Estonia of violating border agreements.
Against this backdrop, NATO began preparing a plan for the accelerated deployment of troops to defend the Baltic states and simulated combat scenarios on the Alliance’s eastern flank. Among these was the possibility of a Russian offensive from Belarusian territory.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko stated in April that the country was preparing for war and that “there can be no peacetime”. In mid-May, Belarus took part in the largest Russian nuclear exercises in over 30 years.
Earlier, at Alexander Lukashenko’s request, Vladimir Putin deployed tactical nuclear weapons and the ‘Oreshnik’ ballistic missile system on Belarusian territory.
