The Belarusian opposition has handed over a report to Ukraine on Lukashenko’s preparations for war: details
This is stated in a statement by the Joint Transitional Committee of Belarus.
Pavlo Latushka, Deputy Chair of the UTC, presented the Ukrainian Foreign Minister with a detailed report on how Lukashenko is systematically preparing Belarus for war
In this report, the Belarusians have identified eight key indicators that the Lukashenko regime is actively preparing either for direct entry into the war. They are as follows:
The legalisation of ‘pre-emptive strikes’. As opposition figures point out, the Belarusian authorities have introduced key changes to military legislation. These include, in particular, amendments to the Constitution, as a result of which Belarus is no longer a neutral and non-nuclear country. The new Military Doctrine, adopted in 2024, officially permits the use of pre-emptive strikes in the event of an ‘imminent threat’ (which could be interpreted as anything from a concentration of troops near the borders to other threats to national security) and the deployment of the Belarusian army abroad.
Large-scale deployment of forces. The number of contract soldiers has increased by a factor of 1.5 since 2022, and the mobilisation reserve is estimated at 289,000 people. A Southern Operational Command is being established on the Ukrainian front (the total number of troops could rise to over 80,000), and a ‘people’s militia’ is also being formed. Belarus is actively adopting Russian practices: SMS conscription notices have been introduced, and prisoners are now permitted to be recruited into the army.
The economy is being put on a war footing. Over four years, defence spending has increased fivefold. Belarus’s defence industry is fully integrated with Russia’s, and a regime of total secrecy has been introduced. In 2024 alone, over 4,000 new pieces of military equipment were commissioned.
Nuclear weapons and the Wagner Group. Integration with the Russian Armed Forces has reached its peak: Russian troops are stationed in Belarus on a permanent basis, and tactical nuclear weapons and the ‘Oreshnik’ missile system have been deployed there. Belarusian military personnel are being trained by instructors from the Wagner Group.
The ‘Khrenin Line’ and the militarisation of children. Defence lines are being built along the borders with Ukraine, Poland and Lithuania. Infrastructure (bridges, airfields) is being modernised to facilitate the movement of Russian heavy military equipment. Compulsory military training has been introduced in schools, and tens of thousands of children are to attend special military-patriotic camps.
Mobilisation of the medical and civilian sectors. The Belarusian Ministry of Health has approved guidelines for the strict triage of the wounded in wartime. In Minsk, 5,000 air-raid shelters have been inspected, warning systems are regularly tested, and body armour is being procured at district level for the needs of the militia.
Stockpiling of strategic resources. Mandatory reserves of petroleum products have been doubled — to 30 days’ supply. The Ministry of Defence has expanded the lists of civilian vehicles that may be mobilised during martial law. Furthermore, in accordance with Council of Ministers Resolution No. 249 of 15 May 2026, civilian transport belonging to enterprises may be forcibly organised into military convoys.
Ongoing exercises. In 2026, the regime continues the practice of large-scale, continuous military exercises. These are used to covertly check mobilisation lists and maintain a high level of psychological tension within society.
As emphasised by the Defence Industry, the report submitted to the Ukrainian side not only documents these trends but also contains specific recommendations on how to prevent the worst-case scenario and curb the aggressive ambitions of Lukashenko’s regime.
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