The Sun and the magnetic storm: will there be a danger on 21 June?
On 20 June, an M-class solar flare occurred. Such flares are of moderate intensity and can cause geomagnetic disturbances if the ejection of charged particles is directed towards Earth.
According to SIDC data, M-class flares have been recorded on the Sun over the past 24 hours, including an M2.6 flare in the NOAA sunspot group AR4473. However, the associated coronal mass ejection is not expected to reach Earth directly.
Will there be a magnetic storm on 21 June?
According to the Meteoagent forecast, the K-index on 21 June is not expected to exceed approximately 3–4. A magnetic storm usually begins at a Kp level of 5.
The British Geological Survey also forecasts a predominantly calm geomagnetic environment on 21 and 22 June.
This means that, following a solar flare, only minor fluctuations are possible, but no strong magnetic storms are currently expected.
What does the K-index mean?
The K-index indicates the level of disturbance in the Earth’s magnetic field. The higher it is, the more active the geomagnetic conditions are.
Readings up to 4 are considered calm or moderately disturbed. A level of 5 already corresponds to a weak magnetic storm, whilst higher values may indicate more severe geomagnetic events.
How solar flares affect the Earth
Solar flares are powerful bursts of energy caused by sudden changes in the Sun’s magnetic field.
During strong flares, streams of charged particles can be ejected into space. If they reach Earth, this can cause magnetic storms and affect the operation of satellites, radio communications and navigation systems.
Some people may experience headaches, fatigue or a general feeling of being unwell during geomagnetic disturbances, although the body’s reaction varies from person to person.
What to bear in mind
Despite the calm forecast for 21 June, data on solar activity may be updated throughout the day.
Experts continue to monitor active regions on the Sun, as new M-class flares are possible in the near future.
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