Ukraine’s Ambassador to Belarus, Bezsmertny, has assessed the risk of a new invasion
Roman Bezsmertny made this statement in an interview with Anzhelika Syzonenko on LB live.
Bezsmertny described as unlikely the scenario in which Belarus would independently enter the war against Ukraine as a separate military force.
According to him, the Belarusian army is not prepared for modern warfare, lacks sufficient resources and is incapable of conducting a full-scale offensive operation against Ukraine.
“As for Belarus itself, its entry into the war as a military unit is unrealistic, absurd, far-fetched and fantastical,” Bezsmertny said.
He also added that, in his view, the Belarusian army is not combat-ready in the context of the current war and lacks everything necessary to conduct modern combat operations.
Why he considers an offensive from Belarus unlikely
The diplomat stated that Belarus does not have sufficient resources for a ground operation against Ukraine.
According to Bezsmertny, Russia could theoretically concentrate 150,000–200,000 troops in the Scandinavian-Baltic theatre, but it would be difficult for it to provide such a force with everything necessary for an attack in the north-eastern direction.
He also believes that preparations for such an operation would not go unnoticed by Ukraine.
“From the point of view of conducting a ground military operation, Russia could concentrate approximately 150–200 thousand personnel in this direction. But under current conditions, it is unlikely to be able to provide them with what is necessary to carry out an attack,” said Bezsmertny.
What role does Lukashenko’s regime play?
Despite scepticism regarding a new ground invasion, Bezsmertny emphasised that the Lukashenko regime is effectively participating in the war on Russia’s side.
He described Belarus as a satellite of the Russian Federation, a springboard for an offensive against Ukraine and a resource for the Kremlin in the war.
According to him, this concerns the use of territory, airfield infrastructure, technical capabilities, as well as individual components for missiles and drones.
“Lukashenko’s Belarus is at war with Ukraine. It is a satellite of Russia, and this must be understood,” Bezsmertny stated.
Could Russia use Belarus to launch strikes?
Bezsmertny believes that Russia may continue to use Belarusian territory for missile or drone strikes against Ukraine.
At the same time, he distinguishes between the risks of strikes and the risk of a full-scale ground offensive. He considers the first scenario a possibility, but regards the second as far less realistic.
“Could Russia, in the current situation, use Belarusian territory for certain kinetic strikes or attacks? In terms of drones and missiles – yes,” said the diplomat.
How Bezsmertny explained Lukashenko’s statements
Separately, Bezsmertny commented on the shift in Lukashenko’s rhetoric, as he has recently spoken of reconciliation with Ukraine and assured that Belarus would not enter the war.
In the diplomat’s view, such statements are part of the Kremlin’s information policy.
He believes that Lukashenko is acting as a source of disinformation: at times he creates tension with statements about a threat from the north, and at other times, conversely, speaks of reconciliation in order to divert Ukraine’s attention.
The Belarusian front remains one of the key security risks for Ukraine following Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.
It was from Belarusian territory that Russian troops advanced on Kyiv at the start of the invasion. Since then, Ukraine has strengthened its defences along the northern border and continues to monitor military activity in Belarus.
Bezsmertny’s statement is significant in that he distinguishes between two scenarios: the use of Belarus as a military resource for Russia, and a direct offensive by the Belarusian army, which he considers unlikely.
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