Ukraine Could Be Left Outside NATO Under Possible U.S.–Russia Deal

The United States is considering a peace scenario under which Ukraine would not be formally required to renounce its NATO ambitions, yet could effectively be prevented from joining the Alliance. This was reported by ThePublic.info, citing information from CNN.

According to sources familiar with the talks, one of the most sensitive issues concerned the initial 28-point U.S. peace proposal, which included a provision requiring Ukraine to officially abandon its intention to join NATO. However, negotiators later began to explore an alternative approach: the same objective could be achieved through separate agreements between NATO member states and Moscow — without Ukraine’s direct involvement.

The core idea of such a mechanism is that Kyiv would retain the legal right to seek NATO membership, but its practical path to the Alliance could be blocked. One of the interlocutors explained that Washington is considering bilateral or multilateral arrangements with Russia, which would not require Ukraine’s participation in the decision-making process:

“There will be no pressure on Ukraine to formally reject its NATO aspirations. But if certain guarantees are negotiated with Russia by NATO states without Kyiv at the table, the actual decision might be made without Ukraine’s involvement.”

Given the sensitivity of this compromise — which may prove unpopular among several NATO countries — sources suggest that a political decision at the highest level will eventually be required. Either way, the final approval will rest with the president of Ukraine.

The original U.S. proposal consisted of 28 points, including a section on territorial issues. It reportedly suggested de facto recognition of Crimea, as well as parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, as Russian-controlled territories. Earlier reports indicated that these points were based on a document previously passed to Washington by the Russian side.

On 23 November, a series of negotiations took place in Geneva between Ukraine, the United States, and European partners. After the meetings, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said there had been “significant progress.” Later, it was revealed that the plan had been reduced from 28 to 19 points.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed that the document retained key provisions — including the “all-for-all” prisoner exchange formula and the return of Ukrainian children abducted by Russia. He underlined that Ukraine’s position had been taken into account during the revisions.

Deputy Foreign Minister Sergiy Kyslytsya, who was part of the Ukrainian delegation, stated that the United States agreed not to cap the number of Ukrainian troops at 600,000. He also noted that the clause on amnesty for potential war criminals had been amended to reflect the interests of those affected by the war.

The most contentious issues — territorial matters and future relations between the United States, NATO and Russia — were moved to a separate negotiating track. These topics are expected to be discussed at the presidential level by Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Donald Trump.