US intelligence believes that Iran is now capable of blocking the Strait of Hormuz at any time
US intelligence agencies have recently concluded that Iran could effectively block access to the Strait of Hormuz at any moment. This was reported by CNN sources familiar with the relevant assessments.
According to these sources, regardless of the framework agreement between the United States and Iran – which is due to be formally signed shortly to reopen the strategically important sea route and launch nuclear talks – Tehran has demonstrated its ability to restrict shipping through the strait during the current conflict.
The sources also note that US assessments take into account the possibility of a similar scenario recurring in the future. One of the sources stated that the war has significantly altered the Iranian leadership’s approach to using the Strait of Hormuz as a tool of influence.
Furthermore, according to US intelligence assessments, Iran has gained experience in using attacks on the energy infrastructure of Gulf states as one of its asymmetric means of exerting pressure.
According to sources, the United States was forced to engage in intensive negotiations with Iran regarding the full restoration of shipping through the strait. At the same time, a senior US official stated that Iran would not be able to derive any benefits from the framework agreement unless it ensured the strait remained open and fulfilled its other commitments.
According to the source, the United States will gradually lift the naval blockade in line with the resumption of shipping through the Strait.
Another source reported that Iran’s attempts to restrict the free transport of energy resources had caused discontent among China and the Gulf states. Furthermore, any further actions to close the Strait could have consequences for Tehran itself.
Representatives of the shipping industry and experts monitoring vessel traffic believe that the uncertainty surrounding the terms of the agreements and other risks may continue to affect the volume of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz for some time to come.
According to US intelligence assessments, Iran retains a significant portion of its military capabilities, including missiles, drones, launchers and high-speed boats, which could be used for operations in the Strait area. Furthermore, according to sources, the country is rebuilding its military-industrial base faster than expected and has already commenced new drone production.
The sources reported that US allies had discussed possible mechanisms for ensuring the safety of shipping following the reopening of the Strait, but no final decisions have yet been taken.
At the same time, according to several sources, should negotiations with the United States break down, Iran is considering the possibility of using another lever of influence via the Houthi movement in Yemen. This refers to a potential blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean and is one of the key routes for global trade.
Sources note that a simultaneous blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could have serious consequences for the global economy.
There is currently no complete consensus within the US intelligence community regarding Iran’s future actions. At the same time, several sources have reported that Tehran has gained confidence after successfully blocking the strait and carrying out attacks on the energy infrastructure of countries in the region without significantly straining its own capabilities.
According to some US officials, following the events of recent months, Iran may consider using this tactic more frequently in the future.
US President Donald Trump previously stated that the Strait of Hormuz is already partially open to shipping and is set to resume full operations on Friday following the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran.
US Vice-President J.D. Vance expressed the view that one of the reasons for Iran’s willingness to conclude a framework agreement was its realisation of the risk of losing influence over the situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.
