International Relations

Tighter sanctions from the US and the EU, reduced purchases by India, and the accumulation of stocks at sea may force Russia to reduce oil production in the coming months. Against the backdrop of the war against Ukraine, this puts additional pressure on the Kremlin's budget, where oil and gas revenues account for about a quarter of its income.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has begun naval exercises in the strategic Strait of Hormuz, considered a key route for global oil supplies. The manoeuvres began on the eve of a new round of US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva.

The commanders-in-chief of the German and British armed forces have stated that rearmament is a morally justified step to protect peace. In their opinion, strengthening Europe's defence capabilities has become a necessity due to Russia's change in military strategy following its invasion of Ukraine.

During a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, US President Donald Trump stated that he is prepared to support Israeli strikes against Iran's ballistic missile programme if Washington and Tehran fail to reach an agreement. Against the backdrop of negotiations, the US is considering the possibility of providing military assistance to Israel and is increasing its presence in the region.

Former CIA Director David Petraeus said that real progress in negotiations to end the war is only possible if the US and EU exert much stronger economic pressure on Russia, primarily by restricting the Kremlin's oil revenues.

Armenian Parliament Speaker Alen Simonyan stated that the country will not detain or deport any Russian citizens who are being persecuted for their political beliefs at Moscow's request.

Following his participation in the Munich Security Conference, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine would receive new support packages from its partners, primarily missiles for air defence and protection against ballistic strikes.

The outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian war will determine the future of the entire European continent, said Wolfgang Ischinger, acting chairman of the Munich Security Conference, in his closing remarks on 15 February.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has begun a two-day visit to Slovakia and Hungary, where he will hold talks with Prime Ministers Robert Fico and Viktor Orbán. The main topics will be energy cooperation, fulfilling NATO commitments, and strengthening bilateral relations against the backdrop of Russia's war against Ukraine.

At the Munich Security Conference, a number of European leaders publicly supported the start of discussions on their own nuclear deterrence mechanism, which would complement the American nuclear umbrella. This was prompted by the erosion of trust in Washington's policies and concerns about the US's readiness to respond automatically to possible Russian aggression.

During the Munich Security Conference, Norway and Germany signed a bilateral defence agreement called the Hansa Arrangement. The document is intended to consolidate all cooperation between the two countries in the field of security and strengthen Europe's contribution to the distribution of responsibilities within NATO.

Two diplomatic formats of negotiations are scheduled for Tuesday in Geneva: a separate meeting between the United States and Iran, and trilateral consultations between Ukraine, the United States, and Russia on ending the war.