10 березня: чи буде магнітна буря та прогноз сонячної активності
Over the past 24 hours, solar activity has been low. Six class C flares were recorded on the Sun over the past day. Such flares are considered weak and have virtually no effect on the geomagnetic situation on Earth.
On Tuesday, the geomagnetic field is expected to range from calm to unstable. Solar activity will remain low, although experts admit a small possibility of M-class flares.
According to experts' forecasts, the main indicators of solar activity on 10 March are as follows: the probability of a minor geomagnetic storm is 15%, a major geomagnetic storm – 1%, the probability of an M-class solar flare – 20%, and an X-class flare – 1%. The number of sunspots is estimated at 20.
Experts note that magnetic storms can affect people's well-being. That is why warnings of increased solar activity allow you to control the risk factors for heart attacks and strokes in the days preceding such phenomena.
Solar activity in early March remains variable. According to preliminary forecasts, the geomagnetic situation is as follows: on 1–4 March, the Kp index was 2, which corresponds to a relatively calm state. On 5–6 March, activity increased to Kp 4. On 7 March, the index was Kp 3, on 8 March it fell again to Kp 2, and on 9 March it reached Kp 3.
On 10 March, a Kp level of 5 is forecast, which corresponds to a powerful magnetic storm. On 11–12 March, a Kp level of 3 is expected, on 13 March – Kp 2, and on 14 March, another magnetic storm with a Kp index of 5 is forecast.
The Earth's magnetic activity is measured using special indices. The main indicator is the Kp index, which reflects the level of magnetic field disturbance on a scale from 0 to 9. Values from 0 to 2 indicate a calm state of the magnetosphere, values of 3–4 indicate weak disturbances, and levels of 5 and above correspond to magnetic storms of varying intensity.
The data for calculations are obtained from ground-based magnetometers and satellite observations. Analysis of these indicators allows forecasts to be made and warnings to be issued about possible geomagnetic fluctuations. Solar activity and solar flares are also taken into account when making forecasts, so these assessments are regularly updated.
