A victory in Ukraine could be a major success for Trump
Washington Post columnist Fareed Zakaria believes that Donald Trump has been given the opportunity to reshape the political agenda not in the Middle East, but in Europe, where the war between Russia and Ukraine is ongoing. In his view, recent months have brought changes that could affect the prospects for a peaceful settlement.
The article notes that Ukraine has been at war for five years against an adversary whose economy is roughly 12 times larger and whose population is more than four times that of Ukraine. The author cites Ukraine’s very survival as one of the greatest military and national achievements of the modern era.
Previously, Russia’s advantage lay in its ability to compensate for heavy personnel losses with new conscripts and contract soldiers. At the same time, the author argues that Russian losses may now exceed its capacity to train and replace troops.
The pace of Russian troop advances has slowed. The author cites data from monitoring sources, according to which Russia made almost no gains in controlled territory in May and may have lost ground in certain areas.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is banking on speed, intelligence and technology. The article states that the country has established its own robust drone manufacturing industry and plans to produce over 7 million drones this year. By way of comparison, the author notes that the US plans to manufacture around 300,000 drones by the end of 2027.
The article also mentions Ukraine’s use of long-range drones and missiles to strike oil refineries, oil depots, airfields, radar installations and military facilities on Russian territory. The author points out that even last month’s Victory Day celebrations in Moscow took place amid concerns over possible Ukrainian attacks.
At the same time, Ukraine continues to face difficulties. These include Russian strikes on cities, a shortage of missiles for Patriot systems, staffing issues and political tensions linked to corruption scandals and mobilisation.
The author highlights Europe’s role separately. In his view, one of the most significant events of the year was that European aid largely offset the reduction in US support for Ukraine. The article also mentions the European Union’s €90 billion credit assistance package.
Assessing Donald Trump’s actions regarding Ukraine, the US president did not make full use of his opportunities to exert influence. Among potential steps, he cites the resumption of large-scale military aid to Kyiv, the tightening of sanctions against Russian oil and the so-called shadow fleet, as well as the acceleration of US arms sales to NATO countries for onward transfer to Ukraine.
After that, Trump could offer Vladimir Putin a peace deal. The article also claims that Russia has lost between 350,000 and 500,000 troops, and that the war is becoming increasingly unpopular within the country.
The author believes that Trump’s sceptical attitude towards Ukraine and his approach to Russia could make him an acceptable negotiator for the Kremlin. At the same time, he emphasises that any potential agreement must be acceptable to both Ukraine and its European partners.
Ukraine may agree to territorial concessions, but its new borders must be protected, and the state itself must receive real security guarantees.
Vladimir Putin’s calculations regarding Ukraine’s weakness and the West’s fatigue have not paid off. In his view, Donald Trump has the opportunity to help bring the war to an end and conclude an agreement that could be described as historic.
