Four years of Putin's war against Ukraine, Ukraine's peace efforts are being hampered
After returning to the White House in January 2025, Donald Trump promised to quickly end the most significant conflict in Europe since World War II. However, more than a year of US-led diplomatic efforts has failed to produce results due to disagreements over Russia's demands regarding territories in eastern Ukraine and control of Europe's largest nuclear power plant.
According to the Institute for the Study of War and AEI's Critical Threats Project, Russian troops control 19 per cent of Ukraine's territory. That is only one percentage point more than three years ago.
Three rounds of trilateral talks have been held in Abu Dhabi and Geneva this year, but they have not produced a solution. Ukraine's European allies have largely remained outside the process, even though they are financing most of the arms purchases to support Kyiv's defence after the reduction in US military aid.
The negotiations are led by US Special Envoy Stephen Witkoff and Jared Kushner. According to a NATO representative familiar with the discussions, Moscow and Washington are effectively competing to see who will be the first to make concessions. This means either Russia's withdrawal from its demand for complete control over the Donbas territories or the US's refusal to support Ukraine. Despite the constructive nature of the contacts, the process has effectively reached an impasse.
Vladimir Putin shows no willingness to abandon his demands, particularly regarding the territories in the Donetsk region that his troops have not been able to fully capture. Moscow also refuses to hand over control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which it occupied at the beginning of the invasion.
In an interview with German broadcaster ARD, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he was ready for a personal meeting with Putin and stressed the need to end the war. Ukraine rejects Russia's demand to withdraw troops from fortified positions in the eastern part of Donetsk Oblast and proposes a ceasefire along the current front line.
The US proposes the creation of a free economic zone in the region and security guarantees for Ukraine in the event of a new Russian attack. There is no final format for the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Washington has stated that the division of control over the plant will be an important part of any agreement. Ukraine does not agree to joint control with Russia, but admits that the American side may dispose of its share at its own discretion.
According to DeepState, which cooperates with the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence, Russia's territorial gains over the past three years have amounted to less than 1 per cent of Ukraine's territory. Significant sections of the front line have become areas of active drone use, complicating offensive operations by regular units.
Former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny, now Ukraine's ambassador to the United Kingdom, said during an event at Chatham House in London that the current war strategy is aimed not so much at capturing territory as at depleting the enemy's resources.
Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi visited the southern section of the front and described the situation as difficult. According to him, since the end of January, Ukrainian forces have regained control of almost 400 square kilometres of territory.
Western officials estimate that last month Ukraine inflicted greater losses on Russia on the battlefield than Moscow was able to compensate for. British Minister for the Armed Forces Al Carnes noted that the level of losses has grown disproportionately, and the economic situation in Russia is becoming increasingly difficult.
Stephen Witkoff said in an interview with Fox News on 21 February that he and Jared Kushner expect positive news in the coming weeks regarding a peace initiative that could involve a summit between Vladimir Putin, Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump.
