Europe is bracing for the risk of war with Russia: why the next two years are considered dangerous

Politico reports this, citing European politicians, diplomats and defence officials.

European governments are discussing the risk that Russia may use the next year or two to put pressure on NATO.

According to Politico, defence officials and lawmakers fear that the Kremlin may view this period as an opportune moment to test the West’s resolve.

The reason is that Donald Trump is still in the White House, and the European Union has not yet fully strengthened its own military capabilities.

Finnish MEP Mika Aaltola stated that “something could happen very soon”, as Russia has a “window of opportunity”.

According to him, the US is turning away from Europe, transatlantic relations are in a difficult state, and the EU is not yet ready to take on all defence functions independently.

Could Russia attack a NATO country?

Defence officials and politicians do not rule out a Russian ground offensive against a NATO country.

At the same time, one senior NATO diplomat and three senior European defence officials consider such a scenario unlikely.

The reason is that Russia is exhausted by the war against Ukraine.

According to Politico’s sources, the most likely scenario may not be a large-scale offensive, but a targeted or ambiguous operation.

These would be actions designed to create political uncertainty within NATO.

The aim of such an operation is to sow division among allies over whether it is serious enough to trigger NATO’s Article 5.

Article 5 stipulates that an attack on one ally is considered an attack on all.

However, Trump has previously referred to NATO as a “paper tiger”.

His term is due to end in January 2029.

Former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis believes that Putin may attempt “horizontal escalation” against another neighbour to avoid humiliating negotiations with Ukraine.

What scenarios are being considered in Europe

According to Aalto, Russia is unlikely to launch an overt operation where NATO is strong, such as on the Polish border.

Instead, the strike could take a different form.

It could be an operation involving drones.

Action in the Baltic Sea is also possible.

Another possibility is activity in the Arctic or an attempt to exert pressure on small islands.

Aaltola also mentioned Russia’s “shadow fleet”, which, he said, is already partially militarised.

“A drone attack does not require troops, does not require crossing the border,” he explained.

In his view, the Kremlin could try to put pressure on Ukraine’s European allies whilst avoiding a direct reaction from the US.

If there is no clear attack across the border, Washington may declare that it is of no strategic significance.

Aaltola believes that this is precisely what Russia is counting on.

Why Europe is talking about a dangerous period

European defence spending has risen sharply following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

However, the impact of this spending will not be felt immediately.

According to the EU’s defence roadmap, the bloc aims to be ready to deter adversaries and respond to aggression by 2030.

It is precisely the gap between current risks and Europe’s future defence readiness that creates a sense of a dangerous period.

European politicians are also taking the US position into account.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that the greatest threat to the transatlantic community is “the prolonged disintegration of our alliance”.

According to Politico, if the Republicans perform poorly in the US mid-term elections in November, Trump may put even greater pressure on NATO and Europe to regain the support of his base ahead of the 2028 elections.

The US has already announced the withdrawal of 5,000 American troops from Germany.

Trump has also threatened similar moves against Italy and Spain.

One European defence official believes that, due to the domestic political situation in the US, there is a risk of an even more negative shift in the American stance on NATO.

In his view, the EU must “invest heavily and collectively” to be ready to defend itself.

The Baltics, Ukraine and NATO scepticism

In a television interview, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy suggested that Russia might be preparing a move against “one of the Baltic states, for example”.

Kyiv has also stated that the Baltic states could be targets because of their support for Ukraine.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sibiga told journalists that Russia was “sending a signal” by accusing the Baltic states of allegedly allowing Ukrainian drones to use their airspace.

Meanwhile, politicians in the Baltics are trying to allay concerns.

Estonian President Alar Karis told Politico that Russia is very preoccupied with Ukraine and, in his view, does not have sufficient capacity to wage war against the Baltic states as well.

A similar view was expressed by a NATO diplomat and three European defence officials.

One of them described the scenario of a direct Russian attack on NATO as “highly unlikely”.

According to him, even Putin’s “suicidal tendencies have limits”, especially if there is no obvious and immediate benefit.

Another European defence official noted that Russia sees itself in a long-term confrontation with the West.

However, according to current assessments, there is no short-term military threat to NATO due to Russia’s involvement in the war against Ukraine.

At the same time, he stressed that Europe must remain vigilant, as Russia may misjudge the unity and resolve of the allies.

A third official described a war on two fronts as a “very, very risky strategy” for Putin.

According to him, Europe is currently actively working to strengthen its own defences.

Despite this, the Estonian president acknowledged that the danger cannot be completely ruled out.

“You never know. And no one expected a war in Ukraine,” said Karis.

He added that Estonia remains vigilant, prepared and “keeping its eyes open”.

Why some politicians oppose reassurance

There is no consensus in Europe on how serious the immediate Russian threat is.

On the one hand, politicians from Finland and Lithuania are calling for an urgent strengthening of missile defence and overall defence readiness.

They also point to delays in US arms deliveries due to the war in Iran.

On the other hand, in Estonia and within NATO itself, there are fears that excessive alarm only plays into Putin’s hands.

Aaltola, however, believes that downplaying the threat could create a false sense of security in Europe.

According to him, this is dangerous for democratic countries, as without an awareness of the risk, resources will not be allocated to defence.

Finnish MEP Ville Niinistö also noted that Russia is not all-powerful.

However, he said, despair can also be dangerous.

In his view, even a minor psychological manoeuvre by Russia could be aimed at frightening Europe, weakening it and reducing support for Ukraine.

As reported by ThePublic, the European Parliament has called for Russia to be held more accountable for the war against Ukraine

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