Not the 2022 scenario: Serhiy Flesh explains the threat from Belarus
Serhiy Flesh wrote about this on his Telegram channel.
Serhiy Flesh stated that he regularly receives questions about potential threats from the Republic of Belarus.
In his view, some activity in this regard is indeed being observed and could pose a threat to Ukraine or European countries in the future.
At the same time, Flash emphasised that he currently sees no readiness to attack Ukraine, hypothetically ‘tomorrow’.
“Yes, we are observing activity that could pose a threat to us or European countries in the future. No, we do not see any readiness to attack us, hypothetically ‘tomorrow’,” he wrote.
Ukraine is monitoring the situation
According to Flash, Ukrainian intelligence is monitoring the situation on the Belarusian front.
He also noted that Ukraine has sufficient fortifications and troops on its borders, as well as forces on standby, to repel any potential aggression.
Flash emphasised that the Ukrainian army is prepared for various scenarios and developments.
Why it is no longer 2022
Separately, Flash stated that there will be no repeat of the 2022-style global invasion.
According to him, warfare has changed, and any column of military equipment would not last even a few hours under current conditions.
This point is important for an audience that fears a repeat of an offensive from the north following the scenario of the start of a full-scale war.
What risks remain
Flash believes that opening a front from the Belarusian side may have a different objective – to draw part of the Ukrainian forces to a new section of the front.
Another possible scenario is Russia using Belarus as a launchpad for missiles or “suicide drones”.
In other words, the main threat, in his assessment, lies not only in a possible ground invasion, but also in the use of Belarusian territory to launch strikes against Ukraine.
Flash also expressed the hope that the people and army of Belarus recognise the modern nature of war and its consequences for all sides, and will not allow themselves to be drawn into this conflict.
He emphasised that the peoples of Ukraine and Belarus “have nothing to divide and nothing to fight over”.
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