The estimate of Ukraine’s population at 20 million has sparked debate among experts
Will Lloyd, a British journalist with *The New Statesman*, reported that, according to one British official, Ukraine’s population could have fallen from over 40 million in 2014 to approximately 20 million by 2025. He noted that this figure is significantly lower than most available estimates.
However, these figures are not official and differ significantly from estimates by international organisations. A full census has not been conducted in Ukraine since 2001, making it difficult to determine the exact population size.
According to estimates by the United Nations and other sources, in 2024 the population of Ukraine stood at approximately 37–38 million people, including territories affected by the war. Other studies indicate that around 28–32 million people live in government-controlled territory.
Thus, the estimate of 20 million is regarded as an extreme or unofficial scenario, although it reflects the scale of demographic changes.
The main factor behind the population decline remains Russia’s war against Ukraine. Following the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022, over 6 million Ukrainians fled abroad, predominantly women and children.
In addition to migration, population losses and internal displacement are having an impact. According to United Nations estimates, Ukraine’s population has already fallen by approximately 10 million due to a combination of combat casualties, emigration and a decline in the birth rate.
Demographic challenges existed previously, but they have intensified since 2022. Ukraine has one of the lowest birth rates in the world, at around one child per woman, which is significantly below the replacement level.
At the same time, the mortality rate has risen and now exceeds the birth rate. According to some estimates, there are almost three deaths for every birth.
The population decline has been ongoing since the collapse of the Soviet Union. In 1991, over 50 million people lived in Ukraine, but even before the war, this figure was falling due to migration, low birth rates and economic factors.
According to current projections, the population could fall to around 25 million by the middle of the century and to 15 million by 2100 if current trends continue.
