Five regions where the conflict surrounding Iran could spread
According to the source, more than 2,000 people have been killed as a result of the fighting, and millions have been forced to flee their homes. Iran has responded with attacks on neighbouring countries, including US targets and oil infrastructure, and has blocked the Strait of Hormuz. This is reported by The Public, citing the NYTimes.
The conflict could affect countries that are already experiencing internal tensions or have recently been through wars.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia is attempting to diversify its economy and attract investors, whilst maintaining relations with the US and upholding the agreements with Iran reached in 2023.
Before the war began, there were around 2,700 US troops stationed in the country. Since the outbreak of hostilities, the US has been conducting refuelling operations from Prince Sultan Air Base.
In the event of further escalation, Saudi Arabia may reconsider its approach to security, including the development of a nuclear programme. It is also possible that the country may abandon the normalisation of relations with Israel or review its investment plans in the US. In the event of direct involvement in the war, Riyadh may turn to Pakistan, with which it has a defence agreement.
Iraq
Iran wields significant influence in Iraq, particularly through political factions and paramilitary groups. The country is home to the Popular Mobilisation Forces, comprising over 200,000 fighters.
The US controls part of Iraq’s financial flows through the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and influences political processes.
Millions of Kurds live in Iraq, including Iranian Kurds, some of whom are opposed to Tehran.
Hostilities have already spread to Iraq. Iranian forces and allied groups have attacked American targets. There are also reports of possible support for Iranian Kurds, which could drag the country into internal conflict.
Turkey
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is attempting to position the country as a mediator, whilst Turkey is actively engaged in the region and possesses a powerful military.
American troops and tactical nuclear weapons are stationed on its territory. Turkey also has a complex relationship with Israel and a significant Kurdish minority.
The possible use of Kurdish forces in a war against Iran is a cause for concern in Ankara. This could lead to domestic tensions or new conflicts. Turkey also fears an influx of refugees from Iran.
United Arab Emirates
The United Arab Emirates is an important financial centre and a US defence partner. Around 3,500 American troops are stationed in the country.
At the same time, the Emirates maintain economic ties with Iran and have normalised relations with Israel.
According to the source, it is this country that has suffered a significant number of strikes from Iran. French fighter jets have been deployed to the region, and Australia has announced its intention to send military aid.
The Emirates are considering freezing Iranian assets. At the same time, the situation calls into question their reputation as a safe hub for business.
Lebanon
Lebanon is already embroiled in a separate conflict with Israel. The country is home to the Iran-backed Hezbollah group.
Following the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel have intensified. The civilian population is suffering significant losses.
The Lebanese government has announced a ban on Hezbollah’s military activities and its intention to disarm the group. This could lead to internal conflict.
Israel has stated that it may seize part of Lebanon’s territory. The conflict could drag on even after the end of hostilities between the US and Iran.
Overall situation
The conflict is unfolding against a backdrop of a lack of clearly defined objectives and an end to the operation. It is estimated that it could either end in the near future or enter a protracted phase.
Possible scenarios include further escalation, the deployment of ground troops, or an attempt by the US to withdraw from the war. At the same time, events are already affecting the situation in the region and could lead to its further destabilisation.
