Donald Trump’s political coalition may not survive until 2028
Donald Trump will not be able to stand for a third presidential term, so he will not head the Republican ticket in the 2028 election. At the same time, the coalition of voters that backed him in 2024 may not hold together for the party’s next candidate, according to Bloomberg.
Opinion polls suggest that Republican voters support Trump’s decision to participate in a military operation alongside Israel against Iran. At the same time, criticism of the war from parts of the right wing, particularly certain media and political figures, remains significant.
Trump has united various groups within a single political force, including supporters of an active foreign policy and isolationists who question defence spending. Experts believe that this very combination of interests may prove difficult to replicate without his involvement.
Jeffrey Brauer, a professor of political science at Keystone College, noted that Trump’s coalition is unlikely to transfer to his successor.
‘If Trump does not head the electoral list in 2028, it is unlikely that his coalition will switch to the side of any of his successors.’
Researchers compare this situation to Barack Obama’s coalition, which was not fully retained in the subsequent election. Some voters who had previously supported the Democrats voted for Trump in 2016.
Research by the University of Virginia’s Center for Political Studies showed that over 13 per cent of Trump’s voters in 2016 had previously voted for Obama.
A separate study, based on 18,000 interviews, identifies four groups of Trump voters: committed supporters, anti-progressive conservatives, traditional Republicans, and voters who supported him reluctantly. The latter group accounts for around 20 per cent of his electorate.
Researchers note that it is this category of voters that is the most volatile and may not support the next candidate.
Experts also emphasise that support for Trump is not only political but
also emotional. ‘Trump is not merely the embodiment of certain political views. He is a figure to whom people feel a strong emotional attachment.’
Trump’s approval rating stands at 41 per cent, whilst his economic policies have a lower level of support. His handling of the Iran crisis also remains at a similar level.
According to analysts, the main challenge for the Republican Party will be finding a candidate capable of uniting such diverse groups of voters.
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