Putin could attack Europe as early as this spring
Russian President Vladimir Putin may be feeling the pressure due to the situation on the front line in Ukraine, economic difficulties and limited ability to influence allies. At the same time, analysts suggest this could make him more dangerous. This is reported by The Public, citing the Washington Post.
The Russian army has failed to achieve a breakthrough in Ukraine and has suffered significant losses. According to Michael Kofman, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Russia lost between 30,000 and 35,000 killed and seriously wounded in March, which exceeds the rate at which troops are being replenished.
Former US intelligence officer Eugene Rumer notes in his research that after the war, Russia may become less secure, more embittered and more dangerous for Europe. He believes that Europe will remain the Kremlin’s primary focus.
According to Roemer, for Moscow, Ukraine is part of a broader confrontation with Europe. The Russian leadership has repeatedly stated that it considers Europe a party to the war.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte previously warned that Russia may be prepared to use military force against the Alliance within five years. He noted that European countries are already on the eastern flank of the confrontation.
In recent days, Russia has stepped up its rhetoric regarding European countries. The Russian Ministry of Defence has stated that it may strike countries supplying drones to Ukraine, specifically Germany, the UK, Sweden, Italy and the Netherlands.
Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, wrote that the statement by the Russian defence ministry effectively constitutes a list of potential targets.
Analysts believe that if Russia feels it is running out of time, it may consider taking further action against Europe, particularly before European countries complete their rearmament.
Experts are paying particular attention to the US position. The article notes that US President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticised NATO, raising doubts in Europe about the reliability of American security guarantees.
The new US National Security Strategy emphasises the need for a diplomatic settlement of relations between Russia and Europe and a reduction in the risks of conflict.
Experts warn that a US refusal to support its NATO allies in the face of a threat from Russia could create an opportunity for Moscow to implement its plans.
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