Russia is preparing a large-scale summer offensive in southern and eastern Ukraine

The Russian military command plans to launch a large-scale offensive in the south and east of Ukraine in the summer of 2026, which indicates that the Kremlin has no real interest in ending the war in the near future. This is stated in a new report by the Institute for the Study of War.

Analysts note that Russia is likely to draw on limited strategic reserves, which have been accumulating since autumn 2025, for this operation. At the same time, the available resources may not be sufficient for both full-scale preparation for the offensive and for achieving the set goals. The Russian army is facing difficulties in recovering its losses and is already forced to use operational reserves to support current combat operations.

The report cites an assessment by Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets dated 5 February, according to which preparations for a summer offensive have already begun. He predicts that the active phase of the operation could start at the end of April 2026. He names the areas of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, as well as the direction of Orikhiv Zaporizhzhia, as the main targets of the Russian strike.

Mashovets notes that Russian troops are trying to seize advantageous positions in advance, but are advancing slowly and are stuck at the level of tactical tasks. At the same time, the Russian command is in no hurry to deploy strategic reserves, trying to save them for the main phase of the summer campaign.

ISW also notes that since July 2025, Russia has been forming a strategic reserve with new recruits. However, the pace of replenishment does not compensate for regular losses, which calls into question the Russian army's ability to implement ambitious offensive plans.

Analysts emphasise that the Kremlin's intention to launch a large-scale offensive, even with high risks and limited resources, indicates a desire to achieve military goals by force. This refers, in particular, to attempts to capture the entire territory of the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions. The report notes that such actions contradict statements about readiness for peace talks and demonstrate Russia's unwillingness to seek a political solution to the war in the coming months.