Russian business under pressure from expensive money, taxes and staff shortages

In 2026, the Russian economy will enter a phase of so-called expensive money, which, according to signals from the central bank, will become the long-term norm. Against the backdrop of the war against Ukraine and protracted macroeconomic instability, businesses are forced to abandon inertial planning, cut investment programmes and tighten control over working capital. Companies are reviewing project payback periods, payment deferral terms and the real cost of loans, which reduces their willingness to expand even when demand is formally stable. According to The Public, this information comes from the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine.

Tax policy is creating additional pressure. From 1 January 2026, Russia will have an increased VAT rate of 22 per cent. This complicates settlements with counterparties, increases the risk of tax disputes and increases the administrative burden. The new conditions hit small and medium-sized businesses hardest, as they operate in a war economy with limited access to financing.

The labour market remains overheated. The number of vacancies exceeds the supply of labour, and low unemployment against the backdrop of mobilisation and demographic losses intensifies competition for personnel and pressure on the wage fund. At the same time, the expected slowdown in wage growth is forcing companies to look for alternatives to the wage race through automation, downsizing and increasing requirements for universal employee skills.

Problems are also accumulating in logistics. Mandatory electronic document management and tighter regulation of international transport increase the risk of delays and inspections. For sellers on marketplaces, the situation is complicated by new platform economy rules, additional taxes and regulatory uncertainty, which sharply increases the cost of any mistake.

Taken together, these factors indicate that the economic consequences of the war against Ukraine are increasingly affecting Russia's domestic business environment. Instead of investing and developing, companies are increasingly focusing on survival, legal protection and risk minimisation, which points to a systemic degradation of the economy in the medium term.