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The Fed’s decision has increased pressure on the hryvnia: the NBU has been forced to sell foreign currency

Katerina Melnychenko
Katerina Melnychenko Deputy Editor-in-Chief
The Fed’s decision has increased pressure on the hryvnia: the NBU has been forced to sell foreign currency
A sharp rise in the dollar above 45 UAH could raise questions for the regulator regarding exchange rate stability.
Following the US Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged but to raise its forecast for them through to the end of 2026, the Ukrainian foreign exchange market reacted with an increase in demand for the dollar.

The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve left the key interest rate unchanged at 3.75 per cent.

At the same time, the median forecast for the rate by the end of 2026 was raised from 3.4% to 3.8%.

This decision affected the global foreign exchange market and strengthened the dollar.

How the currency market reacted

Following the Fed meeting, the euro fell on the international FOREX market from 1.1595 to 1.1478 dollars.

The fall took place over approximately an hour and a half.

As a result, pressure on the hryvnia intensified on the Ukrainian interbank market, and the non-cash dollar exchange rate rose.

What happened to the dollar exchange rate

The non-cash dollar rate on the interbank market rose from 44.80 UAH to 44.92 UAH on the ‘bid’ side.

The National Bank quickly intervened in the market with currency interventions to curb exchange rate fluctuations.

The NBU’s official exchange rate on 18 June stood at 44.80 UAH to the dollar and 51.93 UAH to the euro.

How much currency did the NBU sell?

Within 40 minutes, the volume of trades on the Bloomberg trading system reached $155 million.

According to market participants’ estimates, the National Bank itself may have sold around 120–130 million dollars of this volume.

Why the 45 UAH level is important for the NBU

The psychological threshold of 45 UAH per dollar remains important for the foreign exchange market.

On 18 June, the NBU’s Board will consider monetary policy issues, in particular whether to keep the policy rate at 15 per cent per annum.

A sharp rise in the dollar above 45 UAH could intensify questions directed at the regulator regarding exchange rate stability.

What this means for the hryvnia

The Fed’s decision does not in itself determine the hryvnia exchange rate, but it does influence the dollar-euro exchange rate on the global market.

This is important for Ukraine, as external currency fluctuations can quickly spill over into the interbank market and force the NBU to intervene more actively to stabilise the exchange rate.

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