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The NBU has published a macroeconomic review: what is happening with inflation, the economy and public finances

The NBU has published a macroeconomic review: what is happening with inflation, the economy and public finances

07 July 2026, 17:00

The NBU has published a macroeconomic review: what is happening with inflation, the economy and public finances — The NBU’s macroeconomic forecast

In May, headline inflation in Ukraine slowed to 8.2 per cent year-on-year, thanks to an increase in the supply of certain raw food products. At the same time, core inflation accelerated to 7.9 per cent, as businesses continued to factor rising labour, energy and logistics costs into their prices, as well as the impact of the previous depreciation of the hryvnia. According to the National Bank’s estimates, headline inflation continued to slow in June, whilst core inflation continued to rise.

This is set out in the National Bank of Ukraine’s Macroeconomic and Monetary Review for July 2026, which summarises economic developments in May and June.

Businesses have become more cautious, but some sectors have picked up

In June, business sentiment deteriorated due to intense Russian attacks on business facilities. At the same time, economic activity remained uneven.

In particular, increased grain exports supported the transport sector, improved consumer sentiment boosted trade, and the recovery in the metallurgy sector and increased gas production bolstered industry. Meanwhile, the downturn in construction continued due to restrained capital expenditure and a slowdown in housing construction.

Labour shortages persist, wages are rising

Although the labour supply continued to grow faster than demand, the Ukrainian labour market continued to experience a shortage of workers.

According to the NBU, it was precisely this labour shortage and higher pay in the public sector that sustained high growth rates for both nominal and real wages, which in turn exacerbated underlying inflationary pressures.

Reserves began to recover thanks to international aid

In May, the current account deficit narrowed to $3.7 billion (from $4.8 billion in April) due to lower energy imports, a seasonal decline in demand from the agricultural sector and an increase in grant receipts.

By June, Ukraine had received over $15 billion in external financing, which enabled international reserves to start growing again. At the same time, the state budget deficit in May–June widened due to increased government expenditure, whilst the rollover of domestic government bonds since the start of the year reached 112 per cent.

The policy rate remained at 15%

In June, the NBU’s Board kept the discount rate at 15 per cent. The regulator notes that this decision supported strong public demand for hryvnia-denominated term deposits and domestic government bonds.

At the same time, the National Bank highlights improvements in the external economic environment. Preliminary agreements between the US and Iran have contributed to a sharp fall in global energy prices; in particular, oil prices fell by almost 30 per cent over the month, although the world’s leading central banks are currently maintaining a tight monetary policy due to inflationary risks.

As a reminder, the National Bank previously issued an economic forecast for 2026–2028.

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