Trump believes the war could end without the Strait of Hormuz being reopened
US President Donald Trump has told his advisers that he is prepared to end the military operation against Iran without restoring full functionality to the Strait of Hormuz. According to the administration’s assessment, a military operation to reopen the waterway would require extending hostilities beyond the planned timeframe, reports The Wall Street Journal.
Over the past few days, Trump and his advisers have concluded that such an operation could extend beyond the four to six weeks originally envisaged as the campaign’s timeframe. Instead, he believes it is advisable to focus on achieving key military objectives, in particular weakening the Iranian navy and missile capabilities, after which the active phase of hostilities would be concluded.
Going forward, Washington plans to put pressure on Tehran through diplomatic channels to restore free navigation. If this proves unsuccessful, the US may call on allies in Europe and the Gulf states to take the lead in reopening the strait. Meanwhile, military options remain on the table, though they are not a priority.
Trump’s public statements regarding the Strait of Hormuz have varied recently. He has alternated between threatening strikes against energy infrastructure should it be blocked and stating that the issue of the strait’s closure concerns other countries more than the US.
The closure of the strait affects the global economy and causes fuel prices to rise. Countries that depend on energy supplies via this route are already feeling the effects of reduced supplies. The shortage also affects industries that use fertilisers or helium.
Some experts believe that without the resumption of shipping, Iran will continue to influence global trade until the parties reach an agreement or a military scenario is implemented.
At the same time, plans for a swift conclusion to the campaign do not fully align with the administration’s other actions. Military forces have already been deployed to the region, including the USS Tripoli and the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit. The possibility of deploying additional troops is also being considered.
White House spokeswoman Caroline Levitt stated that the US is working to restore normal operations in the strait, though this is not among the primary military objectives. Secretary of State Marco Rubio noted that the current campaign objectives could be achieved within a few weeks, after which the issue of the strait will remain unresolved.
According to him, further action will depend on Iran or on a coalition of countries capable of ensuring freedom of navigation.
Iran had previously laid mines in the waters of the strait and threatened attacks on tankers, leading to a sharp reduction in shipping traffic. The US considered various options for a response, including urging shipping companies to continue sailing and stepping up pressure on Tehran.
Currently, around 20% of global oil supplies are transported through the Strait of Hormuz. According to the US Energy Information Administration, in 2024, 84% of the oil and 83% of the liquefied natural gas passing through this route were destined for Asian countries.
Oil prices have already exceeded $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022, and some analysts predict a possible rise to $200 in the event of a prolonged disruption to supplies.
