The US has stated that Putin is not winning the war against Ukraine
According to estimates by Seth Jones and Riley McCabe of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Russian forces could suffer around 1.2 million casualties, including dead and wounded, from 2022 onwards. The number of fatalities could reach 325,000, which is more than five times the combined losses of the USSR and Russia in conflicts since World War II.
The report notes that despite significant losses, Russia's territorial gains remain limited. In particular, during the offensive on Pokrovsk, Russian troops advanced an average of 70 metres per day from the end of February 2024 to January this year.
Analysts compare the nature of the fighting to the trench warfare of World War I and emphasise that the pace of the Russian offensive is slower than during some offensive operations of the last century. According to the authors' estimates, the ratio of Russian and Ukrainian losses is approximately two or two and a half to one.
The Centre for Strategic and International Studies also notes that about half of Russia's budget is spent on the armed forces, the military-industrial complex, internal security and debt servicing. The report emphasises that Russia does not have a single company in the list of the world's 100 largest technology companies by market capitalisation.
The article notes that under such conditions, Moscow's position in the negotiations is not unquestionably strong. The authors believe that additional military and economic pressure could influence the course of the negotiation process.
