Scientists have discovered an unexpected mathematical principle that governed major changes in Earth's history
«Geological time scales may appear orderly in diagrams in textbooks, but their boundaries tell a much more chaotic story», — explained Andriy Spiridonov, a geologist and paleontologist from Vilnius University.
According to him, what previously seemed like irregular "noise" is actually the key to understanding how the planet changes and how far these changes can go.
The history of Earth consists of periods of relative calm interrupted by catastrophes. Such events could have triggered the beginning of new geological epochs. For example, the asteroid impact 66 million years ago, which destroyed the dinosaurs, ended the Mesozoic era and began the Cenozoic, which continues to this day.
It turned out that these boundaries form clusters separated by long periods of calm. This indicates a so-called «multipractal system» — when complex behavior is determined by recurring logic operating at different scales.
«Intervals between key events, from mass extinctions to sharp evolutionary jumps, are not distributed chaotically but follow a certain multi-level logic», — explained Spiridonov.
Scientists concluded that understanding all possible states of Earth requires data covering at least 500 million years. Better yet — a billion.
«If we want to understand the entire spectrum of the planet's behavior — from prolonged calm to sudden global catastrophes, we need records spanning half a billion or even a billion years», — said the researcher.
The authors of the study developed a new mathematical model described as a «complex multi-fractal-Poisson process». It shows that events defining new stages in Earth's history form a cascade of nested structures.
«We have mathematical proof that changes in the Earth system are not simply irregular. They are deeply structured and hierarchical», — summarized Spiridonov.
These conclusions not only help explain the past over 4.5 billion years of the planet's existence but may also provide clues about what global changes to expect in the future.
