Super El Niño is rapidly intensifying: climate disasters are forecast worldwide
The Daily Mail reports on this.
The Super El Niño phase has officially begun: what are the risks?
According to the latest forecast from the World Meteorological Organisation, El Niño conditions are set to develop into a ‘strong’ event as early as July to September 2026.
Meteorological models are showing a steady and significant warming of the ocean surface in key central and eastern regions of the Pacific Ocean. Experts predict that in the critical zones that trigger this cycle, water temperatures will exceed average levels by more than 2 °C.
In the northern hemisphere, El Niño is expected to continue strengthening throughout the autumn. At the same time, other areas, notably the equatorial basin of the Atlantic Ocean, will also remain significantly warmer than normal. This natural warming cycle has the potential to exacerbate climate change and lead to extreme weather conditions worldwide.
“This will increase the likelihood of droughts and heavy rainfall, as well as the risk of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions of the world,” says Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organisation.
El Niño is a natural weather cycle and one of the main factors behind annual weather variability. Every 2–7 years, the system shifts from the cooling La Niña phase to the warming El Niño phase. During El Niño, warm water accumulates in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This can raise the average global temperature and disrupt normal weather patterns.
Last month, scientists confirmed that the surface of the Pacific Ocean had warmed above the threshold required for El Niño to be officially declared. The probability of above-normal sea surface temperatures in the equatorial region now stands at over 80 per cent.
El Niño usually peaks between November and February, with its greatest impact on global temperatures occurring the year after the phenomenon begins. It almost always leads to abnormal temperatures and extreme weather.
At the same time, Europe is already suffering from record-breaking heat; in France, in particular, 1,300 deaths have been reported. Although the current heatwaves are not linked to El Niño, experts warn that as it intensifies this summer, extreme temperatures should be expected ‘almost everywhere’.
It is likely that countries around the world will face severe heat over the coming months. The same risks apply to the summer of 2027.
What is El Niño and why is this phenomenon dangerous for the planet?
It is worth recalling that the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the NOAA Climate Prediction Centre forecast, with a probability of over 80 per cent, the return of El Niño in the summer of 2026.
This natural phenomenon, caused by abnormal warming of the surface waters of the Pacific Ocean, is capable of radically altering the planet’s weather: triggering droughts and bushfires in Australia and Indonesia, floods in South America, and disrupting the monsoon rains in Asia.
Research shows that, due to global warming, the intensity of ENSO fluctuations will increase, leading to more abrupt transitions between drought and excessive rainfall. For Ukraine, this could mean more frequent heatwaves, thunderstorms and hailstorms; however, meteorologists do not forecast any catastrophic or prolonged droughts.
A powerful El Niño poses serious threats to global food and economic security, as abnormal weather in key agricultural regions could cause shortages and price spikes for coffee, cocoa and fruit.
In addition to terrestrial ecosystems, the ocean is also set to suffer a devastating blow: water warming inhibits the upwelling of nutrients from the depths, causing a nutrient shortage in phytoplankton – the foundation of marine food chains – and causing widespread damage to coral reefs.
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