The conflict surrounding Iran is affecting the situation in Armenia and Azerbaijan
In Azerbaijan, the consequences of the conflict are already being felt. On 5 March, a drone launched from Iranian territory struck an airport and a school in Nakhchivan. The incident occurred the day after the Azerbaijani president’s visit to the Iranian embassy in Baku.
Following the attack, the sides exchanged sharp statements, but tensions eased after talks between the presidents of Iran and Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan focused on obtaining explanations from Tehran and refrained from retaliating. This is reported by the Carnegie Endowment.
Following the incident in Nakhchivan, civilian air traffic was temporarily suspended, but resumed a few days later. The region remains dependent on transport routes through Iran.
At the same time, rising oil prices could bring Azerbaijan additional export revenues. However, the rise in energy prices creates inflationary risks. A possible influx of refugees from Iran cannot be ruled out either.
A separate factor is the situation regarding the Azerbaijani population in Iran, which numbers over 20 million people. They are represented in various spheres of Iran’s government and hold differing views on the country’s future.
Azerbaijan states that it does not plan to participate in a war against Iran and denies that its territory is being used for Israeli military operations.
In Armenia, the consequences of the conflict are of a different nature. The country shares a short border with Iran, but the war could affect trade and the economy, particularly through rising energy and import costs.
Disruptions to trade links could affect cooperation with Iran and other partners, including India. At the same time, the situation may foster cooperation with Turkey and Azerbaijan.
An additional risk factor is a possible influx of refugees from Iran, which could place an additional burden on Armenia’s economy.
The political situation is also linked to preparations for the parliamentary elections in June. The government may use a cautious foreign policy as a campaign argument.
The war is also affecting regional projects. In particular, the implementation of the TRIPP transport route, which is intended to connect Azerbaijan with Nakhchivan via Armenian territory, may be postponed.
Further developments in the region will depend on events in Iran.
