Russia`s banking system has lost stability: intelligence reports the onset of a systemic crisis
The banking crisis in Russia has already begun, despite the regulator's reassuring rhetoric. This was reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, analysing the financial results of the Russian banking system for 2025.
According to intelligence data, banks' net profit fell by 8% compared to 2024 and amounted to $45 billion. At the same time, return on capital fell to 18%. The deterioration in performance occurred against the backdrop of tight monetary policy, a sharp increase in reserve requirements and the rising cost of attracting resources. The SBR emphasises that these figures do not indicate a cyclical slowdown, but rather the beginning of a deeper dysfunction of the entire sector.
At the same time, the quality of the loan portfolio is deteriorating. The share of problem loans in the Russian banking system has risen to 11%, and for unsecured loans to 12%. Such default rates are incompatible with official statements about stability and indicate the systemic nature of the problems, which can no longer be explained by individual segments or temporary shocks.
The actual recognition of the onset of a systemic banking crisis has also been voiced by analysts at the Centre for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, which is considered close to the Kremlin. According to their estimates, the current apparent stability is based not on real recovery, but on the dominance of state-owned banks, massive restructuring of problem assets and regulatory easing. This model only postpones the crisis, while increasing the risk of a rapid and large-scale outflow of deposits in the event of an escalation of the situation.
The report notes that the declared stability of the Russian banking system is artificial. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation has effectively switched to manual risk management, allowing banks to mask problem loans under the guise of restructuring. Under these conditions, official statistics conceal the real scale of losses.
According to the FSB's forecasts, the Russian banking sector will inevitably require additional state support. This will increase fiscal and macroeconomic pressure on the aggressor country's economy and cement the banking crisis as a long-term factor.
