ISW stated that Russia's ability to support Iran is limited
The Institute for the Study of War stated that the war against Ukraine limits Russia's ability to provide Iran with full military assistance. Analysts note that Moscow condemned both the current strikes on Iran and the attack on it in 2025, but its potential to defend Tehran remains limited.
The report emphasises that Russia's resources are limited due to the full-scale war against Ukraine. According to ISW estimates, Russia was unable to provide Iran with substantial support during the strikes in June 2025 and is now again limited to condemnations.
Analysts also note that over time, Russia has become less dependent on Iran in the military sphere. Some of the products that were previously imported from Iran have been localised in Russia. Currently, the Kremlin relies much more on North Korea's support.
The ISW believes that Moscow's reaction is mainly political and rhetorical in nature, and that real military intervention to defend Iran is unlikely.
Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed his condolences to Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on the death of Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei. The statement said that Khamenei's assassination was carried out "in cynical violation of all norms of human morality and international law."
The Russian leadership also condemned the military operations of the United States and Israel against Iran and called for an end to hostilities and a return to diplomatic settlement.
Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev criticised the attacks on Iran, saying, "The peacemaker has once again shown his true colours. All negotiations with Iran are a cover-up operation. No one doubted that. No one really wanted to agree on anything. The question is who has more patience to wait for the inglorious end of their enemy. The US is only 249 years old. The Persian Empire was founded over 2,500 years ago. Let's see in 100 years."
During a telephone conversation with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called the actions of the US and Israel unacceptable and called for a diplomatic solution to the conflict in the Middle East. According to ISW, Moscow also claims that the strikes violate international law and create risks of destabilisation in the region and the world.
Criticism of the US and Israel was also expressed by Leonid Slutsky, chairman of the Russian State Duma's Foreign Affairs Committee, and Alexei Chepa, first deputy chairman of the committee. They called on the UN Security Council and other international institutions to prevent further escalation.
