The EU is considering a five-stage plan for Ukraine's partial membership as early as 2027 – Politico
The European Union is developing a five-stage plan that could open the way for Ukraine to become a partial member as early as 2027. This was reported by Politico, citing ten European officials and diplomats. According to the publication, Brussels believes that the traditional model of EU enlargement, which often takes decades, is unacceptable for Ukraine given Russia's war against the country.
The proposed approach is called reverse enlargement. Its essence is that a country joins the European Union at the beginning of the process of fulfilling the membership criteria, rather than after their complete fulfilment. In this format, Ukraine can obtain limited rights to participate in the work and negotiations of the EU, and then gradually expand the scope of membership privileges in parallel with the implementation of reforms agreed with Brussels.
The first step of the plan involves preparing Ukraine for accession while maintaining the requirement to implement all necessary reforms. The EU has already processed Ukraine's application in advance, providing Kyiv with informal recommendations on negotiations within the so-called clusters, which are legal stages on the path to membership. In general, the accession procedure covers six clusters, including several sections in areas ranging from agriculture and foreign policy to judicial reform. To move on to the next stage, each cluster must be unanimously approved by all 27 EU countries.
The second step involves revising the timeframe for enlargement. Brussels emphasises that EU treaties do not contain provisions prohibiting accelerated progress towards membership, provided there is unanimous political agreement. This approach could potentially be applied not only to Ukraine, but also to Moldova and Albania. The European Union has already provided Ukraine with detailed information on three of the six negotiation clusters, and recommendations on the rest are to be presented in March during an informal meeting in Cyprus.
One of the key obstacles remains Hungary's position. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has repeatedly opposed Ukraine's accession to the EU and made the issue part of his election campaign ahead of the parliamentary elections in April. He has stated that he opposes Ukraine's membership, in particular because of its demands to ban Russian energy imports to Europe.
The third step of the plan is to wait for the results of the 2026 elections in Hungary. Brussels hopes that Orbán may lose to his opponent Péter Magyar, who has declared a different approach to Ukraine and promised to put the issue of its accession to the EU to a referendum. If this does not happen, the fourth option is to involve US President Donald Trump in exerting political pressure on Budapest to lift the veto.
If all previous scenarios fail, the EU may resort to a fifth step by applying Article 7 of the Treaty on European Union. This mechanism allows the voting rights of a member state to be restricted in the event of a risk of violation of the EU's fundamental values. Previously, EU capitals avoided such a step, but according to Politico, Orbán's victory and continued blocking of decisions could force Brussels to resort to extreme measures.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has previously stated that EU membership is a guarantee of security for Ukraine and is already enshrined in a 20-point peace plan. According to him, Russia will try to hinder Ukraine's European integration through third parties, so setting a specific date for accession is of fundamental importance. At the same time, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on 29 January that Ukraine's accelerated accession to the EU was impossible, stressing the need to meet the Copenhagen criteria, which usually takes several years.
