Europe will not compensate for the decline in US aid to Ukraine — UST report
Despite increases in contributions from Germany, France and Britain, they do not offset the cessation of US support. According to The Public, based on updated data from Ukraine Support Tracker, European countries have allocated only about €4.2 billion in new military aid in 2025, which is insufficient given the pause in US funding. Total new military aid commitments fell after peaking in the first half of the year and continue to decline in the autumn.
According to project leader Professor Christophe Trebesh, Europe has been unable to maintain the pace of the first half of the year. If the current trend continues, 2025 will be the year with the lowest level of new aid commitments to Ukraine since the invasion began in 2022. To reach at least the average figures of previous years, more than €9 billion in additional funding will be needed by the end of the year, requiring a pace twice as fast as the current one.
At the same time, the gap between donors is growing. Germany has almost tripled its average monthly allocations, while France and the United Kingdom have more than doubled theirs. However, even they lag behind the leaders of the North — Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden — in relative terms, which remain the most generous in terms of the size of their economies.
At the other end of the spectrum are Italy and Spain. Italy has cut its already modest allocations by 15 per cent compared to previous years, while Spain has not made any new military commitments for 2025. According to the authors, this unevenness significantly weakens the pan-European response.
The report notes that the increase in resources allocated by the largest EU economies is noticeable, but without an even distribution of the burden, Europe is unable to compensate for the loss of American support.
