Ukraine has joined the group of countries with the highest debt-to-GDP ratio, according to a study

Experts Club has published a new video analysis examining how the ratio of public debt to GDP has changed in various countries around the world between 1950 and 2025. The visualisation covers the period from post-war recovery and debt crises to the pandemic and the current phase of high-cost borrowing.

The final slide focuses on the situation in 2025. According to the international methodology used in the study, it is then that Ukraine also joined the ranks of the 20 countries with the highest debt burden.

The study is based on data from the IMF DataMapper and the World Economic Outlook for October 2025, using the general government gross debt indicator. According to IMF estimates, global public debt reached 96.8% of global GDP in 2025, whilst for advanced economies the average stood at 111.8% of GDP.

This means that high debt remains a systemic feature not only for vulnerable or crisis-hit countries, but also for the world’s largest economies.

According to the data used in the video, in 2025 the group of countries with the highest debt burden included Sudan, Japan, Singapore, Greece, Bahrain, the Maldives and Italy. The US, France and Canada were also in this same group.

Ukraine, with a ratio of around 108.6–110% of GDP, also found itself at the top of the global anti-ranking and, according to these estimates, was among the top ten countries in terms of debt-to-GDP ratio.

By way of comparison, the 2025 database shows a level of 108.6% of GDP for Ukraine, 128.7% for the US, 119.6% for France, 138.3% for Italy and 226.8% for Japan. In the consolidated international tables, based on the same IMF estimates, Ukraine also features similar figures – at around 110% of GDP.

The authors of the study describe this result as particularly telling for Ukraine. According to IMF DataMapper, in 2025 the total public debt of the general government sector reached 108.6% of GDP. Meanwhile, VoxUkraine, analysing the same IMF data, notes that this is the highest level recorded for Ukraine over the entire observation period.

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine reported that public and state-guaranteed debt stood at 98.4% of GDP at the end of 2025. The discrepancy in the study is explained by the methodology itself, as the IMF uses the broader ‘general government gross debt’ indicator for international comparisons. According to the study’s logic, it is this indicator that is appropriate for the global ranking shown in the video.

Maksym Urakin, founder of Experts Club and a candidate of economic sciences, noted that the study shows not only the size of the debt but also the country’s position within the global risk system. According to him, Ukraine’s inclusion in the group of states with the highest debt burden is a direct consequence of the war, the massive need for budgetary funding, and dependence on external support.

At the same time, Urakin emphasised that this result is also a reminder of the future challenge facing the post-war economy. It is not just about recovery, but also about the need to develop a long-term debt management strategy.

A broader conclusion of the study is that high debt levels are no longer the preserve of crisis-hit countries. Among the countries with the highest debt burdens today are both economies with long-standing structural imbalances and developed nations with deep domestic capital markets.

The key shift revealed by a comparison of 1950 and 2025 is that the debt model has become the norm in the global economy. At the same time, as the study notes, the issue of debt sustainability no longer depends solely on its volume, but also on servicing costs, GDP growth rates, the structure of creditors, and the state’s ability to maintain investor confidence.

For Ukraine, the authors’ main conclusion is that the country has already crossed the psychological threshold of 100% of GDP according to international methodology and has joined the global group of the most indebted states. This, as noted, does not mean an automatic debt crisis, but it does mean that the issues of post-war fiscal sustainability, debt restructuring, the cost of new financing and accelerating economic growth will become central to economic policy in the coming years.

As a reminder, Ukraine’s economy will grow more slowly: the EBRD has downgraded its GDP forecast