Russia is losing its influence in the South Caucasus
Volodymyr Fesenko, head of the Penta Centre for Applied Political Studies, stated in an interview with Ukrinform that Ukraine, together with the United Kingdom, France and Germany, has developed a shared vision for the future peace process, but that its implementation requires the support of US President Donald Trump and the resumption of the negotiation process with the participation of European representatives.
According to the political analyst, a ceasefire must be the key condition for the start of future negotiations. At the same time, he described the need to persuade Russia to agree to such approaches as the most difficult task.
Fesenko believes that during the leaders’ meeting in London, they may have discussed ways to influence Donald Trump ahead of the G7 summit, the conditions for resuming negotiations with Russia, and the issue of further military support for Ukraine, in particular the provision of air defence systems.
Commenting on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s open letter to Vladimir Putin, the expert noted that the Kremlin’s reaction was predictable. In his view, it was important to demonstrate to international partners that the Russian leadership was not prepared to end the war, whilst simultaneously showing Ukraine’s readiness for negotiations.
The political analyst believes that there is already an awareness within Russian political circles that it is impossible to defeat Ukraine by military means; however, Putin himself, in his view, is not yet ready to acknowledge this reality. That is precisely why, in his view, pressure on Russia must continue both on the battlefield and through political and economic mechanisms.
Separately, Fesenko commented on political developments in the South Caucasus. He said that Russia had attempted to influence the political situation in Armenia but had failed. At the same time, he suggested that Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan would continue to pursue a policy of balancing between the West and Russia, although developing relations with the European Union and the United States would remain a priority for Yerevan.
Fesenko also emphasised that Russia loses out where pro-European forces are consolidating and a course towards democratic development is being pursued.
Speaking about the upcoming NATO summit in Ankara, the expert identified overcoming the crisis in relations between the US and its European allies as the main topic. In his view, the United States will remain in the Alliance, but European countries will have to take on significantly greater responsibility for their own security.
According to the political scientist, NATO is experiencing one of the most serious crises in its history due to changes in the Trump administration’s approach to transatlantic relations and the European security system.
At the same time, he is convinced that the Alliance’s support for Ukraine will continue. Among the key tasks for Kyiv, Fesenko cited maintaining the mechanism for procuring American weapons through NATO structures.
Commenting on the proposal for NATO countries to allocate 0.25% of GDP to support Ukraine, the expert described it as correct but currently unrealistic. In his view, a more likely scenario is maintaining the current level of aid with a fairer distribution of the financial burden among allies.
Regarding the prospects for Ukraine’s European integration, Fesenko welcomed German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s proposal for a possible format of associate membership in the European Union as an intermediate stage. He emphasised that Ukraine should use all available opportunities to deepen integration with the EU even before gaining full membership.
The political scientist also noted that the main challenges on the path to Ukraine’s accession to the European Union remain the war, its consequences, and economic disputes with certain EU member states. In his view, should additional obstacles arise, Ukraine could consider the Norwegian model of cooperation with the European Union as one possible option for developing relations.
