The Kremlin is turning Belarus into a springboard for a new Russian offensive against Ukraine
Belarus’s role in the war against Ukraine
More than four years ago, Alexander Lukashenko allowed Russia to use Belarusian territory to invade Ukraine. Now, officials in Kyiv are warning that he may once again make his country available for new operations by Russian troops, reports APnews.
Although Belarus did not directly participate in the fighting with its own troops, Lukashenko supported Vladimir Putin’s military efforts. Russian nuclear weapons and military infrastructure are stationed on the country’s territory, and Belarusian enterprises manufacture components for the Russian defence industry. Earlier this month, Russia and Belarus conducted joint nuclear forces exercises using Russian weaponry deployed in Belarus.
When Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, Russian troops stationed in Belarus under the pretext of exercises advanced towards Kyiv. The distance from the border to the Ukrainian capital is around 90 kilometres.
Plans to capture Kyiv quickly failed due to resistance from Ukrainian forces. Convoys of Russian military vehicles on narrow roads became easy targets. Just over a month after the invasion began, Russian troops, having suffered significant losses and faced supply problems, withdrew from Kyiv and other areas in north-eastern Ukraine.
The first talks between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations also took place in Belarus. They were subsequently moved to Istanbul, but no agreement was reached.
As the war entered a phase of attrition, Belarus’s role in supporting Russian military efforts grew. Belarusian factories produce key components, including microchips, other electronics, optical guidance systems, artillery ammunition and heavy trucks for transporting Russian ballistic missiles.
Vladislav Vlasyuk, the President of Ukraine’s Representative for Sanctions Policy, stated that Belarusian microchips had been found in fragments of the ‘Oreshnik’ ballistic missile, which Russia used against Ukraine on 24 May. He called on Western partners to strengthen monitoring of the implementation of sanctions against Belarus.
Belarus has also provided training grounds for Russian military personnel, participated in joint exercises and treated wounded Russian servicemen in its hospitals.
The organisation BELPOL, which comprises former military personnel and law enforcement officers opposed to Lukashenko, states that Belarusian industry is effectively integrated into the Russian war machine. According to its data, over 500 Belarusian enterprises are involved in the production of weapons and ammunition, the repair of military equipment, and logistical support.
BELPOL’s head, Uladzimir Zhigar, stated that Lukashenko’s regime is heavily involved in the war and is assisting Russia in every way possible.
He said that in the Gomel region, which borders Ukraine, construction has begun on a large training ground and barracks for a significant number of troops. Because of this, Ukraine is forced to keep substantial forces on the border with Belarus instead of deploying them along the front line, which stretches for over a thousand kilometres.
Under Russia’s nuclear umbrella
Belarus, which also borders Latvia, Lithuania and Poland, has accepted a portion of Russia’s tactical nuclear weapons on its territory. In December, Russia announced the deployment in Belarus of the latest ‘Oreshnik’ medium-range missile system, capable of carrying a nuclear warhead.
Russia has used a variant of the Oreshnik missile with a conventional warhead three times to strike targets in Ukraine. This occurred in November 2024, in January and in early May.
In 2024, the Kremlin revised its nuclear doctrine and included Belarus under the Russian nuclear umbrella. Vladimir Putin stated that control over nuclear weapons would remain with Moscow, but Belarus would be able to designate targets in the event of a conflict.
Earlier this month, Russia and Belarus conducted large-scale exercises, which included the delivery of nuclear warheads to missile units and preparations for launches. As part of the exercises, a Belarusian crew tested an Iskander missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead.
BELPOL believes that Belarus lacks military sovereignty, so Moscow could use its territory for a new invasion of Ukraine or a conflict with NATO countries.
Warning from Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian intelligence services had recorded an intensification of Moscow’s efforts to draw Belarus deeper into the war and to prepare for further aggressive actions specifically from Belarusian territory.
According to him, potential targets could include the Chernihiv and Kyiv regions or one of the NATO states bordering Belarus.
The President announced that he had instructed the military and security forces to prepare appropriate response measures and strengthen defences in the north of the country.
Alexander Lukashenko denied the existence of any aggressive plans and stated that Belarus would not enter the war unless it came under attack.
Sergei Shoigu, Secretary of the Russian Security Council, also dismissed Zelenskyy’s statements, calling them a ploy to attract additional Western aid for Ukraine.
Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron held talks with Lukashenko on 24 May. This was their first contact since the start of the full-scale invasion. During the conversation, Macron emphasised the risks for Belarus of being drawn into the war.
Lukashenko announced that he would receive a French representative next week for talks on European security and the prospects of easing European Union sanctions.
Andriy Demchenko, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service, stated last week that although intelligence reports indicate increased pressure from Russia on Belarus to directly enter the war, the Ukrainian military has not yet observed any concentration of troops or weapons near the border.
Assessments by the Belarusian opposition and analysts
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the leader of the Belarusian opposition in exile, stated during a visit to Kyiv that Belarus must never again become a springboard for aggression.
“Russian tanks must never again pass through Belarus to Chernihiv, Zhytomyr, Rivne or Kyiv,” said Tsikhanouskaya.
According to official figures, the Belarusian armed forces number 48,600 personnel. In the event of war, the country could mobilise 290,000 people, but weapons and training are required to prepare them.
Alexander Alesin, a military analyst from Minsk, believes that the Belarusian army is not suited to offensive operations. According to him, an attack from Belarusian territory would require the mobilisation of up to 500,000 troops.
He also noted that Ukraine has built strong fortifications on the border with Belarus and mined the border areas, which significantly complicates any attempt at an invasion.
In his view, even with limited forces, the Ukrainian military is capable of inflicting significant losses on the Belarusian army, so an offensive from Belarusian territory would inevitably result in heavy casualties.
Alesin also believes that Lukashenko is keen to preserve Belarus’s current role as a supplier of military equipment and will oppose the country’s direct involvement in the war.
