What will the dollar exchange rate be by the end of July: an expert’s forecast
Taras Lesovyi, Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Activities Department at Globus Bank, spoke about this in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.
Why the dollar is unlikely to rise in value for the time being
The expert believes that the market will remain balanced in the coming days. According to his forecast, the US dollar will trade within the range of 44.5–45 hryvnias, whilst the euro may fluctuate between 50.5 and 52.5 hryvnias.
According to Lesovyi, these figures do not indicate that the exchange rate has been fixed. Rather, they represent the limits within which the currency can fluctuate without significantly affecting the financial system.
He also pointed out that the difference between exchange rates at banks, currency exchange bureaux and on the interbank market is currently negligible. This means that demand for foreign currency remains moderate, and there is no sign of the public buying up dollars on a large scale.
What could change the situation on the foreign exchange market
According to the banker, the National Bank will continue to help maintain stability by intervening in the market with currency interventions as and when necessary. The volume of these interventions is expected to remain at the usual level.
At the same time, the war remains the main source of uncertainty. Any escalation of the situation, attacks on energy or transport infrastructure, or other events affecting the economy could impact market sentiment.
Despite this, Lesovyi believes that there are currently no preconditions for sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate. In his view, daily fluctuations will remain minor, and the overall situation on the foreign exchange market will remain under control until the end of July.
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