Russia’s budget deficit in 2026 could exceed the official forecast by more than one trillion roubles
Russia’s federal budget expenditure and deficit in 2026 could exceed the officially approved figures by more than 1 trillion roubles, or approximately 12.85 billion dollars. This is according to data from the government’s budget portal, which collates information from the Ministry of Finance and the Federal Treasury of the Russian Federation, reports Reuters.
The portal does not explain the reasons for the revised forecast. At the same time, it notes that Russia’s military spending continues to rise due to the war against Ukraine.
The updated forecast was published on the eve of the Bank of Russia’s decision on the key interest rate. The regulator has repeatedly cited the widening budget deficit as one of the main risks to inflation.
According to the forecast, federal expenditure could reach 45.11 trillion roubles in 2026, although the current budget law provides for 44.07 trillion roubles. At the same time, the revenue forecast remains unchanged at 40.28 trillion roubles.
Based on these figures, the expected budget deficit will amount to 4.83 trillion roubles, compared with the 3.79 trillion roubles – or 1.6 per cent of gross domestic product – set out in the current budget.
According to the Russian Ministry of Finance, in the first half of 2026 the federal budget deficit had already reached 5.73 trillion roubles, representing 2.5 per cent of GDP. This is 1.7 times higher than in the same period last year.
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov stated that the deficit would be ‘slightly’ higher than the official target, but assured that this would not lead to a significant increase in domestic borrowing.
The budget deficit is also expected to exceed previous projections over the next two years. The Russian Ministry of Finance has postponed the achievement of a zero primary budget deficit, as required by the fiscal rule, until 2029.
In 2025, Russia’s budget deficit was almost five times higher than the official target, reaching 5.7 trillion roubles, or 2.6 per cent of GDP. This was the highest figure since 2020.
