Ukraine's economy will grow more slowly: EBRD lowers GDP forecast
This is stated in a new report by the EBRD.
The reason for the revision of the forecast was the assumption that Russia's war against Ukraine will continue throughout 2026. At the same time, in 2027, the economy may accelerate to 4%, especially if the security situation improves and post-war recovery begins.
Despite the war, Ukraine's economy is showing stability. In 2025, real GDP grew by 2%, and at the end of the year, the pace even accelerated to 3% in the fourth quarter. This indicates that businesses and the economy are adapting to the conditions of war.
However, growth is being held back by several key problems. These include electricity shortages due to infrastructure shelling, a decline in agricultural production, labour shortages and logistical difficulties. The trade deficit has also increased due to a decline in grain exports and the expiry of certain EU trade preferences.
At the same time, inflation is gradually declining. While it was elevated at the beginning of 2025, it slowed to 7.4% by January 2026. The National Bank of Ukraine was even able to lower its key policy rate after a long period of tight monetary policy.
International financial assistance plays a key role in economic stability. According to the EBRD, more than €110 billion in external financing planned for 2026-2027 will allow Ukraine to maintain public spending, defence and social programmes.
The EBRD notes that the end of the war will significantly improve Ukraine's economic prospects. However, even in the current conditions, the economy is showing resilience, and businesses continue to operate and adapt to the challenges of wartime.
