Weight loss injections can cost around $3 per month.

Semaglutide-based weight loss drugs, such as Wegovy, could cost around $3 per month if mass-produced. This conclusion comes from a new analysis that looks at the potential affordability of treatment for millions of people in lower-income countries after patent protection expires.

More than a billion people worldwide are obese. The disease is growing rapidly in lower-income countries due to changing eating habits and less active lifestyles.

In September last year, the World Health Organisation added semaglutide to its list of essential medicines. The drug is used to treat obesity under the brand name Wegovy and to treat diabetes under the brand name Ozempic.

At the same time, representatives of the global health system noted that the high cost limits access to this treatment.

A new study, published in preprint format, shows that the injectable form of semaglutide can be mass-produced for about $3 per month.

Newer forms of the drug in tablet form could cost around $16 per month, according to researchers' estimates.

One of the study's authors, Dr Andrew Hill from the University of Liverpool's School of Pharmacology, said: "These low prices open the door to global
access to essential medicines."

The researchers also found that the main patents for semaglutide expire this year in ten countries. These include Brazil, China, India, South Africa, Turkey, Mexico and Canada. The patents in these countries are expected to expire on 21 March, which could pave the way for generic drugs to appear.

The researchers also identified 150 other countries where patents for this drug have not been registered. These include most African countries. These 160 countries are home to approximately 69 per cent of people with type 2 diabetes and 84 per cent of people with obesity.

Another author of the study, Professor François Venter of the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, noted:

"Medicines for HIV, tuberculosis, malaria and hepatitis are available in low- and middle-income countries at prices close to cost, saving millions of lives while allowing generic manufacturers to make enough profit to ensure a stable supply. We can repeat this medical success story for semaglutide."

At the same time, the researchers emphasised that cheaper medicines will not eliminate the structural causes of obesity. Among these, they cited food insecurity, poverty, urbanisation and the commercial food environment. In their view, coordinated policy decisions and procurement planning are necessary to reap the benefits of such drugs.

Dr Nomathamba Chandivana, chief research officer at the Desmond Tutu Health Foundation in South Africa, who was not involved in the study, said the findings could be relevant to many middle- and low-income countries.

She said that approximately 27 per cent of the world's adult population meets the criteria for semaglutide-based drugs.

"Importantly, most of them live in low- and middle-income countries, where access to these drugs is extremely limited," she noted.

Nomathamba Chandivana also stressed that the key issue remains the integration of such drugs into obesity and diabetes treatment systems.

Obesity is associated with a number of other diseases, including cardiovascular disease, diabetes, stroke and cancer. Every year, excess weight is linked to approximately 3.7 million deaths.

The number of people with diabetes has risen from 200 million in 1990 to 830 million in 2022. The fastest growth has been recorded in low- and middle-income countries.

Semaglutide was first approved by US regulators in 2017. In the United States, the drug costs approximately $200 per month, and in the United Kingdom, approximately £120 per month.

Patents in the UK, continental Europe and the US are set to expire in about five years.

The study is based on data on the supply of key ingredients in 2024 and 2025. The authors used a methodology previously used to predict the cost of generic drugs for the treatment of HIV, hepatitis C and certain cancers.

The findings also complement a 2024 study by Médecins Sans Frontières, which showed that diabetes drugs, including semaglutide, could be produced and sold at significantly lower prices.