Russia is stepping up pressure on Belarus with a view to possibly opening a new front in the war against Ukraine
Belarus is increasingly being seen as a potential new front in the escalation of Russia’s war against Ukraine. Moscow is stepping up pressure on Minsk in an attempt to draw its closest ally into more active participation in military operations, reports The Wall Street Journal.
According to current and former Russian and European officials, earlier this year the Kremlin launched a campaign of pressure on Belarus, hoping to use its territory as a springboard to expand the war in Ukraine or to conduct non-conventional operations against NATO countries.
Against the backdrop of the Russian army’s difficult situation in eastern Ukraine and a decline in domestic support for Vladimir Putin, the Kremlin views Belarus as a key element in a potential escalation. It is on Belarusian territory that Russia deploys tactical nuclear weapons.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko stated that, during a telephone conversation, French President Emmanuel Macron warned him of the risks of Belarus becoming more deeply involved in the war. According to Lukashenko, the French leader emphasised the possible consequences should Minsk be drawn into Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.
Although Russia used Belarusian territory during the initial phase of its invasion in 2022, Belarus is not formally taking any direct part in the war. At the same time, the US has been trying over the past year to reduce Minsk’s dependence on Moscow. Washington has eased sanctions on Belarusian potash exports and encouraged neighbouring countries to take similar steps.
Against this backdrop, Minsk released around 500 political prisoners following contacts with US representatives.
Recently, Belarus has been more actively supporting Russia. In particular, Minsk is selling petrol and other petroleum products to Moscow amid a fuel shortage following Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refining infrastructure. Russia is also increasingly using ground-based drone control stations on Belarusian territory to launch strikes deep into Ukraine. There are currently around 2,000 Russian troops in Belarus.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stated that Ukraine is prepared to strike such targets in Belarus if Russia continues to use them for attacks. According to him, these stations were used during strikes on the Rivne, Zhytomyr and Volyn regions.
Kyiv believes that Belarus’s continued support for Russia makes it a potential target for Ukrainian strikes on military infrastructure.
According to sources, Moscow is demanding that Minsk provide territory from which to launch drones against Ukraine. A scenario is also being considered whereby the front line in the west would be extended to divert Ukrainian forces from key sectors in the east. An alternative option involves using Belarus for operations against neighbouring NATO countries.
Last month, Russia and Belarus conducted joint nuclear exercises. The Russian military also transported nuclear warheads to ballistic missile positions in Belarus.
The Kremlin, however, maintains that Belarus is not directly involved in combat operations. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that military operations are being conducted exclusively by Russia.
There are currently no signs of an imminent new military operation launching from Belarusian territory. At the same time, sources note that such a scenario remains possible. This refers not only to a conventional military offensive, but also to potential hybrid attacks aimed at testing NATO’s defence capabilities or undermining support for Ukraine.
