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The government has set out the priorities for the Budget Declaration for 2027–2029: key points

The government has set out the priorities for the Budget Declaration for 2027–2029: key points

16 June 2026, 17:00

The government has set out the priorities for the Budget Declaration for 2027–2029: key points — Budget Statement 2027–2029

The government has set out the priorities for the Budget Declaration for 2027–2029. It outlines two possible scenarios: either the war will end or it will continue.

This was announced by MP Olga Vasilevska-Smaglyuk following the meeting.

Among the declaration’s priorities is maintaining funding for programmes provided for in the 2026 budget. This concerns social aspects. In particular, health screening programmes, school meals, teachers’ salaries and measures to boost the birth rate.

Under the scenario of the war ending, inflation in 2027 will stand at 8.9%, and the dollar exchange rate at the end of that year will be 48.3 UAH.

The Ministry of Finance also forecasts wage growth: by 10.4% in 2027, by 8.7% in 2028, and by 7.1% in 2029. The minimum subsistence level may rise by 10.9% in 2027, by 8.9% in 2028, and by 7.1% in 2029.

In 2027, Ukraine will also borrow more. The government expects public debt to reach 106.1% of GDP by the end of 2026. In 2027 — 113%. Ukraine’s need for international financing in 2027 is 2 trillion 134.5 billion UAH.

Furthermore, the government intends to gradually weaken the hryvnia. The average annual exchange rate of the hryvnia will rise from 44.4 UAH/$ in 2026 to 50.7 UAH/$ in 2029. By the end of 2029, the dollar will be worth 51.5 UAH.

Should active hostilities end this year, the government forecasts a rapid reduction in the budget deficit: 18.5% of GDP in 2026, 17.7% in 2027, 11.1% in 2028, and 5.5% in 2029.

If the security situation improves, the need for military spending will decrease. Budget expenditure is expected to peak in 2027 and then begin to decline:

2026 — 4.77 trillion UAH;
2027 — 5.05 trillion UAH;
2028 — 4.87 trillion UAH;
2029 — 4.55 trillion UAH.

If peace is achieved in 2026, the government expects economic growth to accelerate: +2.6% real GDP in 2026, +4.5% in 2027, +5.3% in 2028, and +6.7% in 2029.

Nominal GDP (the total value of all goods and services produced in the country, calculated at current prices) is expected to rise during this period from 10.1 trillion UAH in 2026 to nearly 15 trillion UAH in 2029.

On 10 June, Ukraine’s state budget received €236 million as part of the World Bank’s Peace in Ukraine project. The funds will be allocated to social spending and pensions.

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