Russian economy enters a phase of controlled chaos
According to the estimates of of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, Russia has effectively destroyed the standards of information disclosure in the financial sector. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation has acknowledged that starting from 2027, banks and insurance companies will only publish impersonal data on their ownership structure. After 2022, institutions will be allowed not to disclose information about owners and management due to sanctions risks. As a result, out of 352 credit institutions, only three banks currently disclose their ownership structure, or less than 1 per cent. The new approach involves formal yes or no responses regarding influential persons or unfriendly non-residents, with the form to be filled in by the regulator itself. The regulatory framework is expected to be adopted in 2026, with the launch expected no earlier than April 2027. This was reported by the Service of Foreign Intelligence of Ukraine.
At the same time, the authorities are moving in the opposite direction in anti-corruption policy. Bills have been submitted to the State Duma that would abolish the regular declaration of income by civil servants. Formally, this is presented as a fight against corruption, but in practice it widens the gap between official rhetoric and real control mechanisms.
Against the backdrop of institutional degradation, economic tensions are growing. A third of small and medium-sized entrepreneurs in Russia do not rule out closing their businesses within six months. Banks have sharply reduced consumer lending. POS loans are approved for only one in ten clients, and the share of refusals reached 90 per cent in November. At the same time, pawnshops earned RUB 9.6 billion in net profit in January-September, up 54 percent year-on-year. This indicates a drop in the population's solvency.
Financial difficulties have also affected state-owned companies. In 2025, the volume of non-payments under public procurement contracts increased 2.7 times. The number of cases increased from 200 worth RUB 1.5 billion in 2024 to 548 cases worth almost RUB 4.03 billion. Payments are delayed by one to three months, effectively shifting the financial burden to contractors.
An additional indicator of systemic failure was the cyber sphere. In 2025, 73 per cent of all data leaks came from the public sector. Business and employee expectations remain pessimistic. Only 13 per cent of Russians expect to receive an annual bonus.
The FISU states that the combination of these factors forms a model of the economy that is increasingly moving away from global standards and is being preserved in a state of secrecy, distrust and controlled systemic chaos.
