Most banks forecast growth in business lending in early 2026
More than three-quarters of Ukrainian banks plan to increase lending to businesses in early 2026. This is stated in the Survey on Bank Lending Conditions for the Fourth Quarter of 2025, published by the National Bank of Ukraine.
The NBU notes that financial institutions remain optimistic about the development of the credit market. The balance of responses regarding the growth of household lending has been the highest since the beginning of 2021. At the same time, banks predict that the quality of corporate loans will remain stable over the next year, although there may be some deterioration in the quality of the retail loan portfolio.
Business demand for loans grew in the fourth quarter and throughout 2025. Banks expect demand for all types of corporate loans to increase in January-March 2026. Demand from households also continued to grow, primarily for consumer loans, which has been ongoing since the second quarter of 2023. In the first quarter of 2026, financial institutions predict further growth in demand for both mortgage and consumer loans.
Respondents assessed the debt burden of enterprises as average and that of households as low. Competition between banks and sufficient capitalisation contributed to the easing of credit standards for businesses, and banks plan to continue this policy at the beginning of the year. The approval rate for corporate loan applications has been growing for three consecutive quarters for all types of loans except foreign currency loans.
Credit standards for mortgages and consumer loans have also been eased. For consumer loans, this process has been ongoing for three consecutive years. In the first quarter of 2026, banks expect further easing of standards for consumer loans, while mortgage conditions will remain unchanged.
At the same time, credit risk increased the most in the fourth quarter of 2025. At the beginning of 2026, banks predict an increase in credit risk and liquidity risk in particular.
The survey was conducted from 12 December 2025 to 9 January 2026 among credit managers of 26 banks, which account for 96 per cent of the banking system's assets. According to the NBU, in 2025, banks issued more than 8,700 loans to micro, small and medium-sized businesses for a total of UAH 35.4 billion, guaranteed by the state on a portfolio basis.
NBU, National Bank of Ukraine, business
